FOCUS: CoVid by the numbers: The Bacolod Case

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What does the number of positive CoViD-19 cases in Bacolod tell us? How can the numbers help us know the virus’ behavior? DNX compiled the data given by City Health Office, and Department of Health Region 6.

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Here are the team’s observations.

RECOVERIES, DEATHS, ACTIVE CASES

As of press time, there 28 confirmed cases since the first case broke last 20 March, 2020. Of the number, 17 have recovered, three have died. The rest are active. Ten are facility quarantined, and one is under strict home quarantine.

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SEX AND AGE

According to data, majority of the confirmed cases are male. Of the 28 CCs, 20 are male, and eight are female.

The average age of the CoViD positive patients is 41.64.

Most of the confirmed cases (11 cases) are within the age range of 30 to 39 years old, followed by 40 – 49 (six cases) and the 20 – 29 (five cases) age ranges.

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The rest are 50 – 59 (two cases), 60 – 69 (three), and one 75-year-old.

Residences

The village of Taculing has the most number of cases (four), followed by Villamonte (three), Singcang-Airport (three ), Bata (three), Estefania (two), and Mandalagan (two).

Others are Barangay 4, Alijis, Handumanan, Tangub, Mansilingan, Granada.

One patient (Patient 5) has two reported residences.

Six of the cases have no reported village residences.

Travel history

Meanwhile, data also shows the most common the travel histories of the Bacolod cases. Please note that travel history of Patient 20, a repatriate, is not indicated in the official report of the Bacolod City Health Office.

Among the local travel histories, Manila is the most common point of origin, with 22 confirmed cases having been to the capital city, either as tourist, as Locally Stranded Individual, or as stopover point in the case of repatriates. (Note: Official reports did not indicate the travel history of one of the confirmed cases).

The most common foreign points of origin of the confirmed cases with travel histories abroad are: the USA (five cases), UK/England (three cases), Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (two), and Italy (two).

The rest are Japan, Hongkong, Kuwait, and Brazil.

Patients 8, 9, 14, and 18 had no travel histories, indicating either local or community transmission.

According to the World Health Organization, local transmission is when the source of the disease is not from imported cases but within the “locality” or the area. A local transmission could be from an imported case who infected people when they traveled there.

Community transmission, on the other hand, is when people start contracting the disease but cannot be traced back to any source, may it be local transmission or imported cases.

It is also notable that some of the confirmed cases related to each other. Patient 3, for instance, was the son of Patient 6; while Patient 5 was related to Patient 7 (by law), while Patient 1 is a blood relative of Patient 4.

Symptoms

Eight of the 28 cases (or 28.57 percent) have symptoms; the rest are asymptomatic.
Of the number, cough is the most common symptom, with seven patients reporting it, followed by fever (five cases), sore throat (three), and runny nose (two).

Hatid Probinsiya, Duterte directive

Numbers from the City Health Office reveal that the first CoViD positive case broke last 20 March, 2020. Twenty days later, three more case broke, bringing the running tally to four. Bacolod has a Patient 5 last 28 March and two more in under week (Patients 6, and 7).

For the first two months, Bacolod had a running tally of nine confirmed cases.

Patients 10 and 11 were the among the first repatriates who tested positive; their results came last 6 May.

Since 6 May until this press time, Bacolod has 19 confirmed cases (17 have since recovered). Of the 19, 16 were either repatriated OFWs or Locally Stranded Individuals.

It could be noted that last 5 May, President Duterte ordered LGUs to start accepting OFWs who want to come home. On 25 May, he also directed the Department of Health, the Department of Labor and Employment, and the Overseas Workers Welfare Administration to expedite the return of the OFWs and stranded individuals to their respective home provinces, towns, and cities.

The Department of Transportation had also spearheaded the Hatid Probinsiya program, giving assistance to stranded OFWs by facilitating their return to their home provinces.

All the OFWs and LSI are asymptomatic.

Data shows that for the month of March, there were five confirmed cases of CoViD-19. This prompted city government to declare a community quarantine by 16 March, and then an enhanced community quarantine by end of March and middle of April.

For the month of April, Bacolod had four more cases (Patients 6, 7, 8 and 9). One had exposure to a previous case; another had travel history to US and Manila (and exposure to previous case), and two had no known travel histories nor exposure to previous cases, indicating either local or community transmission.

By May, when the ECQ had eased and the Hatid Probinsiya program is in full sway, five more confirmed cases were reported (four repatriates and one apparent local transmission).

By June, 14 more cases were reported. Of the number, 10 are repatriates and two were LSIs, while two were suspected local or community transmissions.

At least one LSI (Patient 19 of Alijis) did not undergo an RT-PCR tested in Manila before coming back to Bacolod.

Twelve of the 16 repatriates and LSI had initially tested negative in their RT-PCR tests from their points of origin (Manila), and then came out positive during their repeat RT-PCR tests here.

There was no data on initial and repeat tests for Patient 20, and Patient 23.

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